The 2025–2026 aid crisis represents the most significant fiscal and institutional challenge to the Federal Government of Somalia since the beginning of its post-conflict recovery. The abrupt withdrawal of USAID and the redirection of global Official Development Assistance (ODA) toward competing geopolitical priorities have exposed the inherent vulnerability of a state-building model that relies on foreign grants for 66.7 percent of its national budget. What was initially perceived as a period of fiscal expansion has rapidly devolved into a “survival stage,” where the state is forced to make impossible trade-offs between military security and the basic human survival of its citizens.

Somalia’s constitutional and electoral transition is unfolding amid significant political uncertainty. Public debate remains largely elite-driven, with limited systematic evidence on how citizens understand democratic principles, electoral legitimacy, political mediation, and government accountability. This study addresses that gap through a May-June 2026 public opinion poll conducted across Mogadishu and five Federal Member State capitals, reaching 928 respondents. The analysis examines which democratic principles citizens prioritize, which actors they trust to mediate political disputes, which institutions they trust to manage or oversee elections, and which issues they want political leaders to communicate about more openly.

Despite the restricted time frame and geographical scope of the US-Israel war on Iran, its impacts have been profound and far-reaching. Somalia, one of the most import-dependent states in the world, heavily relies on international support for both its economy and security. Consequently, it was anticipated that the war would lead to severe and swift repercussions for the country. This study has explored the implications of the ongoing US-Israel war on Iran in Somalia, with a particular focus on its economic, security, and political repercussions. Within the limited period, the conflict has caused...